We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience.
This includes personalizing content and advertising.
By pressing "Accept All" or closing out of this banner, you consent to the use of all cookies and similar technologies and the sharing of information they collect with third parties.
You can reject marketing cookies by pressing "Deny Optional," but we still use essential, performance, and functional cookies.
In addition, whether you "Accept All," Deny Optional," click the X or otherwise continue to use the site, you accept our Privacy Policy and Terms of Service, revised from time to time.
You are being directed to ZacksTrade, a division of LBMZ Securities and licensed broker-dealer. ZacksTrade and Zacks.com are separate companies. The web link between the two companies is not a solicitation or offer to invest in a particular security or type of security. ZacksTrade does not endorse or adopt any particular investment strategy, any analyst opinion/rating/report or any approach to evaluating individual securities.
If you wish to go to ZacksTrade, click OK. If you do not, click Cancel.
LLY vs. NVO: Which Obesity Drug Stock Is the Better Buy Now?
Read MoreHide Full Article
Key Takeaways
Lilly's Mounjaro and Zepbound now drive about half of its total revenues.
Novo Nordisk cut 2025 guidance as Wegovy and Ozempic face supply and pricing pressures.
LLY forecasts $60B-$62B revenues in 2025, up over 30% year over year.
Novo Nordisk (NVO - Free Report) and Eli Lilly (LLY - Free Report) dominate the diabetes and obesity market on the back of the tremendous success of their GLP-1 products. Lilly markets its dual GIP and GLP-1 receptor agonist, tirzepatide, as Mounjaro for type II diabetes and as Zepbound for obesity. Novo Nordisk markets its semaglutide drugs as Ozempic pre-filled pen and Rybelsus oral tablet for type II diabetes and as Wegovy injection for weight management.
Lilly’s Cardiometabolic Health segment, which includes Mounjaro, Zepbound and other medicines for type II diabetes, generated almost $15 billion in sales in the first half of 2025. Novo Nordisk’s Diabetes and Obesity care segment generated $21.1 billion (DKK 145.4 billion) in sales in the first half of 2025. While Lilly’s Cardiometabolic Health segment generates around 77% of its total revenues, NVO’s Diabetes and Obesity care segment accounts for a huge 93.8% of its total sales.
But which stock is a better investment today? Let’s take a closer look at their fundamentals, growth prospects and challenges to make an informed choice.
The Case for Lilly
Lilly has seen tremendous success with its popular tirzepatide medicines, diabetes drug Mounjaro and weight loss medicine, Zepbound.
Despite being on the market for a little more than three years, Mounjaro and Zepbound have become key top-line drivers for Lilly, with demand rising rapidly. Mounjaro and Zepbound account for around 50% of the company’s total revenues.
Launches of these drugs in new international markets and improved supply from ramped-up production led to strong sales in the first half of 2025. The positive trend is expected to continue through the rest of the year. Approvals for new indications can also drive sales of Mounjaro and Zepbound higher.
In addition to Mounjaro and Zepbound, Lilly has gained approvals for several other new drugs over the past couple of years across various therapeutic areas, including Omvoh, Jaypirca, Ebglyss and Kisunla. Lilly expects its new drugs, Mounjaro, Zepbound, Omvoh, Jaypirca, Ebglyss and Kisunla, along with the expanded use of existing drugs, to drive sales growth in the second half of 2025.
In 2025, Lilly expects to record revenues in the range of $60.0 billion to $62.0 billion, indicating an impressive year-over-year growth of more than 30%
Lilly is investing broadly in obesity and has several new molecules currently in clinical development with a range of oral and injectable medications with different mechanisms of action. These include two late-stage candidates, orforglipron, a once-daily oral GLP-1 small molecule, and retatrutide, a GGG tri-agonist and some mid-stage candidates. Lilly has announced mixed data from two studies on orforglipron in obesity and is now set to file global regulatory applications for this much-awaited oral once-daily pill by the end of this year.
LLY is also working to diversify beyond GLP-1 drugs by expanding into cardiovascular, oncology, and neuroscience areas. In 2025, it announced three M&A deals. It acquired Verve Therapeutics to add gene therapies for heart disease to its pipeline. Lilly has also entered into agreements to acquire Scorpion Therapeutics’ oncology drug and SiteOne Therapeutics’ non-opioid pain candidate.
Lilly has its share of problems. Prices of most of Lilly’s products are declining in the United States, including Mounjaro and Zepbound, primarily due to changes to estimates for rebates and discounts. Rising competition in the GLP-1 diabetes/obesity market is a key headwind. The recent mixed data on orforglipron has created a negative sentiment around the stock, leading many investors to believe that the potential market for orforglipron is less than previously expected.
The Case for NVO
Novo Nordisk has a strong presence in the Diabetes care market, with one of the broadest diabetes portfolios in the industry. NVO’s success in the past few years is underscored by its semaglutide medicines, Ozempic, Rybelsus and Wegovy, which are seeing great demand trends and driving the top line. In the first half of 2025, Novo Nordisk’s GLP-1 sales in diabetes increased 10%, depicting greater patient outreach and market capture. Novo Nordisk continues to be the global market leader in the diabetes GLP-1 segment, with a 51.9% value market share as of the end of the second quarter of 2025.
The company has also been investing heavily to expand its manufacturing capacity as part of its strategic move to entrench its diabetes and obesity care market leadership for its GLP-1 products.
Label expansions of its semaglutide medicines in cardiovascular and other indications will likely boost sales. Among some key approvals, last month, Wegovy was approved in the United States for the treatment of noncirrhotic metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH).
Novo Nordisk is making good progress with its pipeline, which includes several novel candidates for type II diabetes and obesity, as well as candidates for treating hemophilia.
However, Novo Nordisk has been facing rising operational and competitive headwinds. The company has sharply cut its 2025 sales and profit outlook, citing weaker-than-expected momentum for Wegovy and Ozempic amid persistent supply issues, competition from illegally compounded GLP-1 products, and slower adoption across U.S. and international obesity markets. Competitive intensity is escalating with Mounjaro and Zepbound rapidly gaining share and being priced lower. Novo Nordisk’s own heavy price cuts for Wegovy highlight eroding pricing power and revenue pressure. It has faced some recent pipeline setbacks, including underwhelming obesity data for CagriSema (a combination of semaglutide and cagrilintide).
Competition Heating Up in the Obesity Space
The obesity market has gained tremendous popularity, with Goldman Sachs projecting it to grow to $100 billion by 2030. Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk currently dominate the space with their respective GLP-1 injections, Zepbound and Wegovy. In order to maintain their dominance in the market, both Lilly and Novo Nordisk have several next-generation obesity drugs (both oral and injectable medications) in clinical development or under regulatory review.
Several other companies, like Amgen (AMGN - Free Report) and Viking Therapeutics (VKTX - Free Report) , are also developing more potent and convenient GLP-1-based candidates in late-stage studies. Viking Therapeutics’ dual GIPR/GLP-1 receptor agonist, VK2735, is being developed both as oral and subcutaneous formulations for the treatment of obesity. Amgen is developing MariTide, a GIPR/GLP-1 receptor, as a single dose in a convenient autoinjector device with a monthly and maybe less frequent dosing than LLY and NVO’s Zepbound and Wegovy injections, respectively.
NVO, LLY and VKTX are racing to introduce oral weight-loss pills to improve patient convenience, as Wegovy and Zepbound are both injectable drugs. Novo Nordisk has already filed a new drug application (“NDA”) for a once-daily pill formulation of Wegovy and also has several next-generation candidates in its obesity pipeline, like amycretin (a dual GLP-1 and amylin receptor agonist). The FDA is expected to decide on the Wegovy oral formulation NDA in the fourth quarter. Lilly expects to file regulatory applications for its oral GLP-1 pill orforglipron later this year, as already discussed.
Some other large drugmakers, like AbbVie, Roche and Merck, have bought rights to obesity candidates through licensing deals with smaller biotechs in a bid to enter the obesity space. Earlier this week, Pfizer announced a definitive agreement to acquire obesity drug developer, Metsera, for a total enterprise value of $4.9 billion to re-enter the obesity space after it scrapped the development of danuglipron, a weight-loss pill, earlier this year.
How Do Estimates Compare for LLY & NVO?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for LLY’s 2025 sales and EPS implies a year-over-year increase of 37.2% and 77.3%, respectively. EPS estimates for both 2025 and 2026 have risen over the past 60 days.
LLY Estimate Movement
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Novo Nordisk’s 2025 sales and EPS implies a year-over-year increase of 15.3% and 17.4%, respectively. EPS estimates for both 2025 and 2026 have been trending southward over the past 60 days.
NVO Estimate Movement
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Price Performance and Valuation of NVO & LLY
Year to date, while LLY’s stock has declined 3.2%, Novo Nordisk’s stock has plunged 30.9% against the industry’s increase of 0.6%
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Lilly is more expensive than Novo Nordisk, going by the price/earnings ratio. Lilly’s shares currently trade at 25.92 forward earnings, higher than 14.84 for NVO. Lilly’s stock is also priced higher than the industry’s 14.83, while NVO trades almost in line.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Lilly’s dividend yield is 0.8%, while NVO’s is much higher at around 2.4%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Lilly’s return on equity of 92.7% is higher than NVO’s 78.6%
LLY or NVO: Which is a Better Pick?
Lilly has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), while Novo Nordisk has a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell), which clearly shows that Lilly is the winner.
The headwinds faced by NVO — increased competition, slower market growth than previously expected, guidance cuts and workforce reductions — have resulted in the stock crashing 53.2% in the past year. Lilly, with its much more diversified product portfolio, a promising portfolio of new drugs and pipeline candidates, robust growth prospects and rising estimates, is a clear-cut winner despite its expensive valuation. Unlike NVO, which is mainly focused on diabetes and obesity, Lilly has a strong presence in cancer, immunology, etc. Lilly is also a much bigger company than Novo Nordisk. Lilly’s market cap is more than $700 billion, while NVO’s market cap is around $270 billion.
See More Zacks Research for These Tickers
Normally $25 each - click below to receive one report FREE:
Image: Bigstock
LLY vs. NVO: Which Obesity Drug Stock Is the Better Buy Now?
Key Takeaways
Novo Nordisk (NVO - Free Report) and Eli Lilly (LLY - Free Report) dominate the diabetes and obesity market on the back of the tremendous success of their GLP-1 products. Lilly markets its dual GIP and GLP-1 receptor agonist, tirzepatide, as Mounjaro for type II diabetes and as Zepbound for obesity. Novo Nordisk markets its semaglutide drugs as Ozempic pre-filled pen and Rybelsus oral tablet for type II diabetes and as Wegovy injection for weight management.
Lilly’s Cardiometabolic Health segment, which includes Mounjaro, Zepbound and other medicines for type II diabetes, generated almost $15 billion in sales in the first half of 2025. Novo Nordisk’s Diabetes and Obesity care segment generated $21.1 billion (DKK 145.4 billion) in sales in the first half of 2025. While Lilly’s Cardiometabolic Health segment generates around 77% of its total revenues, NVO’s Diabetes and Obesity care segment accounts for a huge 93.8% of its total sales.
But which stock is a better investment today? Let’s take a closer look at their fundamentals, growth prospects and challenges to make an informed choice.
The Case for Lilly
Lilly has seen tremendous success with its popular tirzepatide medicines, diabetes drug Mounjaro and weight loss medicine, Zepbound.
Despite being on the market for a little more than three years, Mounjaro and Zepbound have become key top-line drivers for Lilly, with demand rising rapidly. Mounjaro and Zepbound account for around 50% of the company’s total revenues.
Launches of these drugs in new international markets and improved supply from ramped-up production led to strong sales in the first half of 2025. The positive trend is expected to continue through the rest of the year. Approvals for new indications can also drive sales of Mounjaro and Zepbound higher.
In addition to Mounjaro and Zepbound, Lilly has gained approvals for several other new drugs over the past couple of years across various therapeutic areas, including Omvoh, Jaypirca, Ebglyss and Kisunla. Lilly expects its new drugs, Mounjaro, Zepbound, Omvoh, Jaypirca, Ebglyss and Kisunla, along with the expanded use of existing drugs, to drive sales growth in the second half of 2025.
In 2025, Lilly expects to record revenues in the range of $60.0 billion to $62.0 billion, indicating an impressive year-over-year growth of more than 30%
Lilly is investing broadly in obesity and has several new molecules currently in clinical development with a range of oral and injectable medications with different mechanisms of action. These include two late-stage candidates, orforglipron, a once-daily oral GLP-1 small molecule, and retatrutide, a GGG tri-agonist and some mid-stage candidates. Lilly has announced mixed data from two studies on orforglipron in obesity and is now set to file global regulatory applications for this much-awaited oral once-daily pill by the end of this year.
LLY is also working to diversify beyond GLP-1 drugs by expanding into cardiovascular, oncology, and neuroscience areas. In 2025, it announced three M&A deals. It acquired Verve Therapeutics to add gene therapies for heart disease to its pipeline. Lilly has also entered into agreements to acquire Scorpion Therapeutics’ oncology drug and SiteOne Therapeutics’ non-opioid pain candidate.
Lilly has its share of problems. Prices of most of Lilly’s products are declining in the United States, including Mounjaro and Zepbound, primarily due to changes to estimates for rebates and discounts. Rising competition in the GLP-1 diabetes/obesity market is a key headwind. The recent mixed data on orforglipron has created a negative sentiment around the stock, leading many investors to believe that the potential market for orforglipron is less than previously expected.
The Case for NVO
Novo Nordisk has a strong presence in the Diabetes care market, with one of the broadest diabetes portfolios in the industry. NVO’s success in the past few years is underscored by its semaglutide medicines, Ozempic, Rybelsus and Wegovy, which are seeing great demand trends and driving the top line. In the first half of 2025, Novo Nordisk’s GLP-1 sales in diabetes increased 10%, depicting greater patient outreach and market capture. Novo Nordisk continues to be the global market leader in the diabetes GLP-1 segment, with a 51.9% value market share as of the end of the second quarter of 2025.
The company has also been investing heavily to expand its manufacturing capacity as part of its strategic move to entrench its diabetes and obesity care market leadership for its GLP-1 products.
Label expansions of its semaglutide medicines in cardiovascular and other indications will likely boost sales. Among some key approvals, last month, Wegovy was approved in the United States for the treatment of noncirrhotic metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH).
Novo Nordisk is making good progress with its pipeline, which includes several novel candidates for type II diabetes and obesity, as well as candidates for treating hemophilia.
However, Novo Nordisk has been facing rising operational and competitive headwinds. The company has sharply cut its 2025 sales and profit outlook, citing weaker-than-expected momentum for Wegovy and Ozempic amid persistent supply issues, competition from illegally compounded GLP-1 products, and slower adoption across U.S. and international obesity markets. Competitive intensity is escalating with Mounjaro and Zepbound rapidly gaining share and being priced lower. Novo Nordisk’s own heavy price cuts for Wegovy highlight eroding pricing power and revenue pressure. It has faced some recent pipeline setbacks, including underwhelming obesity data for CagriSema (a combination of semaglutide and cagrilintide).
Competition Heating Up in the Obesity Space
The obesity market has gained tremendous popularity, with Goldman Sachs projecting it to grow to $100 billion by 2030. Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk currently dominate the space with their respective GLP-1 injections, Zepbound and Wegovy. In order to maintain their dominance in the market, both Lilly and Novo Nordisk have several next-generation obesity drugs (both oral and injectable medications) in clinical development or under regulatory review.
Several other companies, like Amgen (AMGN - Free Report) and Viking Therapeutics (VKTX - Free Report) , are also developing more potent and convenient GLP-1-based candidates in late-stage studies. Viking Therapeutics’ dual GIPR/GLP-1 receptor agonist, VK2735, is being developed both as oral and subcutaneous formulations for the treatment of obesity. Amgen is developing MariTide, a GIPR/GLP-1 receptor, as a single dose in a convenient autoinjector device with a monthly and maybe less frequent dosing than LLY and NVO’s Zepbound and Wegovy injections, respectively.
NVO, LLY and VKTX are racing to introduce oral weight-loss pills to improve patient convenience, as Wegovy and Zepbound are both injectable drugs. Novo Nordisk has already filed a new drug application (“NDA”) for a once-daily pill formulation of Wegovy and also has several next-generation candidates in its obesity pipeline, like amycretin (a dual GLP-1 and amylin receptor agonist). The FDA is expected to decide on the Wegovy oral formulation NDA in the fourth quarter. Lilly expects to file regulatory applications for its oral GLP-1 pill orforglipron later this year, as already discussed.
Some other large drugmakers, like AbbVie, Roche and Merck, have bought rights to obesity candidates through licensing deals with smaller biotechs in a bid to enter the obesity space. Earlier this week, Pfizer announced a definitive agreement to acquire obesity drug developer, Metsera, for a total enterprise value of $4.9 billion to re-enter the obesity space after it scrapped the development of danuglipron, a weight-loss pill, earlier this year.
How Do Estimates Compare for LLY & NVO?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for LLY’s 2025 sales and EPS implies a year-over-year increase of 37.2% and 77.3%, respectively. EPS estimates for both 2025 and 2026 have risen over the past 60 days.
LLY Estimate Movement
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Novo Nordisk’s 2025 sales and EPS implies a year-over-year increase of 15.3% and 17.4%, respectively. EPS estimates for both 2025 and 2026 have been trending southward over the past 60 days.
NVO Estimate Movement
Price Performance and Valuation of NVO & LLY
Year to date, while LLY’s stock has declined 3.2%, Novo Nordisk’s stock has plunged 30.9% against the industry’s increase of 0.6%
Lilly is more expensive than Novo Nordisk, going by the price/earnings ratio. Lilly’s shares currently trade at 25.92 forward earnings, higher than 14.84 for NVO. Lilly’s stock is also priced higher than the industry’s 14.83, while NVO trades almost in line.
Lilly’s dividend yield is 0.8%, while NVO’s is much higher at around 2.4%.
Lilly’s return on equity of 92.7% is higher than NVO’s 78.6%
LLY or NVO: Which is a Better Pick?
Lilly has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), while Novo Nordisk has a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell), which clearly shows that Lilly is the winner.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
The headwinds faced by NVO — increased competition, slower market growth than previously expected, guidance cuts and workforce reductions — have resulted in the stock crashing 53.2% in the past year. Lilly, with its much more diversified product portfolio, a promising portfolio of new drugs and pipeline candidates, robust growth prospects and rising estimates, is a clear-cut winner despite its expensive valuation. Unlike NVO, which is mainly focused on diabetes and obesity, Lilly has a strong presence in cancer, immunology, etc. Lilly is also a much bigger company than Novo Nordisk. Lilly’s market cap is more than $700 billion, while NVO’s market cap is around $270 billion.